Navigating the local elections in UK

Written by Harry Gilham, Senior Associate Director.

The local elections in May will be the first since the 2024 General Election and a litmus test for the Labour Government. Despite being the smallest set of local elections since 1975, they are more consequential for the Conservatives, as the councils holding elections are predominantly Conservative-controlled (seven unitary authorities and 11 county councils).

The elections have been slimmed down due to the Government’s devolution agenda, with nine county councils delaying elections until 2026 for local Government reorganisation. Labour strategists are downplaying the results, given the areas’ demographics and the “vaccine bounce” that benefitted Boris Johnson’s Government during the 2021 elections.

One area that should draw attention is County Durham. Last year observers predicted Durham as a comfortable Labour gain. However, in recent months the local Labour Party have become increasingly nervous of the threat posed by Reform in some of their safest seats, preventing Labour from wining outright. The local Labour Party are rumoured to have carried out polling in Durham, something unheard of in recent electoral cycles. The Reform Party threat is also keenly felt by the Conservatives.

The newly created Combined Authority in Lincolnshire will be a key battleground. Eyes will be on whether or not Reform’s candidate for Mayor, Andrea Jenkyns, formerly a Conservative MP, can triumph in what would normally be expected to be a straightforward Conservative victory. Opposition to Labour’s inheritance tax changes for farmers will be a key electoral issue in this agricultural county. Farmers will also be in the spotlight as planning applications and public opposition for renewable energy developments has proliferated in Lincolnshire in recent years.

These issues in Lincolnshire will be familiar to other local authorities holding elections. The unitary authorities of Wiltshire, Cornwall, Shropshire, West and North Northamptonshire, Northumberland, Durham and Buckinghamshire have quite rural agricultural economies experiencing a plethora of renewable energy developments. They are the frontline of opposition to what the Conservatives have dubbed “Labour’s Family Farm Tax”.

The Conservatives will be hoping they can point to stabilisation in local election performances under Kemi Badenoch. They will primarily be threatened by Reform and the Lib Dems rather than Labour. A poor set of elections will re-ignite discussions around the leadership.

With the threat posed by Reform, who have unveiled a policy of banning battery energy storage systems and the fact many of these local authorities have seen big increases to their housing targets under the Labour Government, Conservatives are taking a more combative stance towards development. This position has been exacerbated by proposals in the recently published Planning and Infrastructure Bill to delegate more smaller planning applications away from planning committees. Housebuilders and energy developers should brace for further difficulties operating in these rural counties in the short to medium term.

There will also be various local issues at play. Cornish demands for their own Mayor could lead to a good election result for Cornish Nationalists. Failures on children’s SEND provision in Oxfordshire will result in a blame game between Labour and Lib Dems. Public discontent with sewage spills in Devon could assist the Lib Dems.

Renewable energy developers and housebuilders should be prepared for change following these elections. Whilst the elections will be the first test for the new Labour Government, Labour will say they expected a poor set of results given the electoral demographics.