Ireland’s 2024 General Election: Five Key Takeaways
Insights
Written by Director, David O’Donnell.
- Main outgoing Government parties set to return to power
Contrary to what we are seeing in other elections across Europe, the two main outgoing Government parties held their vote share. Fianna Fáil (FF) return as the largest party with 48 seats while Fine Gael (FG) return with 38 seats. An additional 14 seats were up for grabs as part of the formation of the 34th Dáil, bringing the total seats available to 174 with 88 required to secure a majority.
Given FF and FG are both opposed to going into Government with Sinn Féin who were returned as the second largest party with 39 seats, the clearest pathway to power is the return of an FF and FG lead coalition who have a combined 86 seats. As the returning Chair of the house comes from the FF party, FF and FG will need the support of at least three additional TDs (members of parliament) to form a majority Government.
Going into the election it was anticipated that FF and FG would require the support of a junior coalition partner to form a government, but this is very unlikely now given how close they are to forming a majority. Instead, they are likely to turn to independent TDs to make up the numbers focusing on those who have a previous track record in supporting the Government side. Ideally FF and FG will want to establish a government majority above 90 seats to ensure stability over the term of the 34th Dáil.
In forming a government, the two parties along with Independent TDs need to negotiate policies, allocate departments, and agree on the naming of ministers.
2. Decimation of the Green Party continues the trend of the junior coalition partner suffering most
As the outgoing junior Government coalition partner, the Green Party were arguably the biggest losers in this election, with the loss of 11 of their 12 seats. The party leader Roderic O’Gorman held onto the sole Green Party seat following a close-run fight for the fifth and final seat in his constituency. This is a continuation of a long-standing trend where the junior Government coalition partner suffers most when it comes to election time.
As part of the last Government the Green Party were particularly effective in driving supportive climate action and circular economy policy measures. Many of the measures introduced to reduce emissions to combat climate change proved particularly unpopular outside of Ireland’s urban centres. While the Green agenda for the next Government won’t be as strong, it won’t take a back step on the commitments already in place given these would need to be overturned by new legislation and there are legal EU requirements governing the same.
3. Why it was bad day for Sinn Féin contrary to what they are saying publicly
Publicly, Sinn Féin are claiming that this was a positive election for them returning as the second largest party with 39 seats. However, there is no disputing the fact that this was a bad election for the main opposition party given it lost around a fifth of its first preference vote share compared to the 2020 General Election. The party placed huge emphasis on positioning itself as an alternative for government, particularly in the key policy areas of housing and health.
But ultimately Sinn Féin failed to convince the electorate that they are a credible alternative to lead the next Government. While they are in dialogue with other centre left parties inclining the Labour Party and the Social Democrats, the numbers simply don’t stack up and there is no plausible pathway to form a government without the involvement of either FF or FG, which both parties have ruled out.
4. Labour and the Social Democrats on the rise
Both the Labour Party and the Social Democrats from the centre-left will be particularly happy with this election, returning 11 seats each. Much of the gains made by both parties stem from the loss of the Green Party and Sinn Fein vote. Given their respective seat share and similar policy positioning, its very unlikely we will see either party make a play to go into Government as this would hand advantage over to the other with the potential of suffering the same fate as the Greens in the next election. What we might see emerge is a stronger centre-left opposition block between Sinn Féin, the Labour Party, and Social Democrats which collectively positions itself as an alternative Government coalition next time around.
5. The far-right agenda failed to have any impact
While we’ve seen the far-right influence other election outcomes across Europe this year, this hasn’t been the case in Ireland. Immigration was one of the leading issues that featured in the local and European elections back in June, but its prominence as a priority issue slipped when it came to the national election. With housing, the cost of living, and healthcare emerging as the key issues, anti-immigration far right candidates failed to deliver any sort of traction around their message.
Next steps & timelines
Negotiations are now underway to form the next Government. Both FF and FG have appointed their negotiation teams, and the red line issues are being determined internally this week within the political parties. Conversations have also commenced with Independent TDs who might support the next Government. The formation of the next Government is likely to be much easier and quicker than originally anticipated given the breakdown of the numbers. Negotiations will continue over the run into Christmas, with the expectation that we will have a government in place by early January. The main issue that will need to be resolved between FF and FG is how the rotating Taoiseach (Prime Minister) position will work this time around but it’s anticipated this won’t be a barrier to talks.
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