Instinctif Partners Insight: Winter Themes in Politics
Insights
As Parliament returns and the summer recess ends, political attention turns sharply to the final quarter of the year, a period set to be defined by high-stakes decisions and shifting dynamics. In this video, Ross Melton and Harry Gillam unpack the political landscape’s key themes.
The Autumn Budget and taxes
A pivotal moment for the Chancellor, facing a tough balancing act between raising revenue and avoiding tax hikes that could stifle growth. Rumoured reforms include changes to property taxation and VAT, with debates around whether to pursue multiple small tax increases or one major revenue-raising move.
NHS and Public Services
Despite a recent funding boost, the NHS continues to face mounting challenges, including threats of strike action and a looming winter crisis. The conversation highlights NHS performance as the key metric which voters will judge the success of government—and how reducing waiting lists could also boost economic productivity.
Leadership and Party Dynamics
With Kemi Badenoch’s 12-month leadership probation period ending, speculation around potential challengers is reaching a fever pitch. The lack of clear policy proposals and missed opportunities have aggrevated internal tensions, while Reform UK’s rise is reshaping the political landscape, drawing support from both Labour and Conservative voters.
Upcoming London elections and local campaigning are expected to influence party morale and strategy. The discussion underscores how both major parties grapple with Reform’s unpredictable positioning and how this affects their policy responses and voter engagement.
