THE INSTINCTIF CHANGE INDEX
The pace of change continues to shape the world in which we live and work. At Instinctif Partners, we want to better understand the impact of change and its interconnectedness with politics and the decisions our leaders make. The Instinctif Change Index is a pioneering initiative that aims to better understand the way ‘change’ is being perceived and responded to across multiple facets of life, and importantly to help inform future decision making.
We engaged with a range of stakeholders, CEOs, Key Decision-Makers and Consumers, to understand their attitudes to and perspectives of change.
At Instinctif Partners, we are committed to leading this change, driving growth, and creating a brighter future for all.
Our Sample:
General Population
UK: 2,013 people from the UK and ROI
Nationally representative of age, gender, region
CEOs & Key Decision-Makers
UK: 200+ CEOs and Key Decision-Makers
Spread of industries, business size & revenue
Letter from our CEO
From the way that technology is transforming how we live, work and interact, the growing effects of climate change on the environment around us, the explosive growth and embracing of social movements such as Black Lives Matter, or the impact of the not-so-distant COVID pandemic, we could be forgiven for asking ourselves if we are now at a high-water mark for living through change or does every generation perceive it more than the previous one?
I think not, and align conceptually with futurist and bestselling author Ray Kurzweil who assesses that the rate of change itself accelerating every decade or so, indicating that in twenty years it will be four times what it is today – in other words, this century we will see 20,000 years of change.
So, the key to our future is to understand our perceptions of change which are arguably as interesting and important as much as any change itself. How differences or gaps are effectively managed by business, government, or society at large are often what sits behind misunderstandings, resentment, discord or ultimately, in extremis, conflict.
That is why we have launched the annual Change Index – a new, in-depth study of the perceptions of change among different audience groups. Initially focused on the UK, but expanding next year to a more international format, we have spoken to influencers, key decision-makers and the public to better understand their perceptions of change and how it applies to their lives.
I know this will stimulate debate and I look forward to engaging with even more views on the change that is modern life.
Julian Walker
CEO
Despite everything, we’ve seen remarkable resilience in the economy. Think about the shocks the economy has had to bear – labour shortages, ill health, high interest rate.
Britain has a great foundation, there is reason to be hopeful about the future.
UK business leaders are showing significant levels of optimism about the future
Our survey results suggest that the prevailing media and public gloom is not shared by many business leaders.
Overall, there is very little negativity in relation to how UK business leaders see the prospects for their business and the UK economy over the next couple of years. Although, there is a common belief that the past few years have been challenging, there is encouraging optimism around the UK’s economic future.
Levels of confidence are higher than may have been expected with a broader sense of economic stability and, importantly, of opportunity and growth.
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Confidence in Business Performance
51% of KDMs can picture what their business performance will look like in two years’ time, with only 2% disagreeing, indicating overall confidence in business outlook.
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Financial Performance Stability
56% of KDMs expect the financial performance of their business to remain steady over the next two years, with only 4% disagreeing. This shows cautious optimism about financial stability.
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Revenue Source Stability
59% of KDMs believe their primary source of revenue will remain stable, with just 1% disagreeing. This reflects strong confidence in revenue predictability.
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Industry Stability
58% of KDMs are confident they know what their industry will look like in two years’ time, while 3% disagree. There’s significant trust in industry predictability.
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Business Reputation
58% expect their business reputation to remain steady, with only 1% disagreeing, showing confidence in maintaining strong reputations.
The Relentless Pace of Change: A Double-Edged Sword for Long-Term Business Planning
The rapid pace of change is a double-edged sword for businesses, providing both opportunities and risks. New technologies, shifting consumer demand and evolving global situations means that long-term plans can become outdated fast.
In order to succeed and stay ahead of the competition when navigating an increasingly unpredictable future, businesses must stay flexible, monitor market trends closely, encourage innovation and react quickly to change.
Balancing long-term thinking with quick adjustments is key. Businesses today must adopt a more agile mindset and not be afraid to change tact. One of the themes that came out of our recent interviews with business leaders was the view that in order “to win as a business, you can’t pause.”
Being agile means adapting, not just moving fast. Smart companies change plans quickly when markets shift. They plan flexibly, thinking about different future scenarios to stay strong.
Businesses also shouldn’t be afraid of admitting that they are taking a new approach – “there’s sometimes real power in going, actually, we thought that was great, but now it’s not, let’s change our mind.”
Innovation is key. Letting workers try new ideas helps companies lead change, not just react to it. Long-term goals still matter. Companies should have a clear mission, but be flexible about how to reach it. For example, aiming to lead in eco-friendly products, but adjusting strategies as needed.
Uncertainty is now normal in business. Seeing it as a chance, not a threat, helps companies stand out.
Successful businesses will:
- Plan for the long-term, but stay flexible
- Embrace innovation
- Face the unknown with curiosity
We all must accept that uncertainty is the only certainty. And while it’s normal to crave predictability and routine, embracing uncertainty can bring immense opportunities for businesses that are willing to evolve with it.
Businesses that thrive in this new era will be those that understand the pace of change and adapt accordingly. Smart companies set long-term goals while expecting – and preparing for – a constantly shifting landscape.
Any business has to keep growing or it starts dying. Growth in a highly regulated market which is very competitive is not straightforward.
The Starmer government’s objective of getting the UK to be the fastest growing economy in the G7 over the term of this Parliament is a pipe dream without structural change.
We have to create certainties in the short term and alternative certainties
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Of senior business leaders believe that the British economy is stable but only 15% of the British public agree
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Of senior business leaders believe that Britain has a significant global influence. Compared to 37% of the British public
The Great Divide: re-aligning business and the British public
Our research highlights a substantial gulf in the perceptions of UK business leaders and the general public.
Across a variety of economic and political metrics, the positivity of business leaders is not reflected in the responses of the public.
Unlike almost half of business leaders, the UK public does not believe that the economy is stable – a mere 15% of people agreeing that it was. There is a similar response in relation to the perceptions of Britain as a ‘global influencer’ with almost two thirds of business leaders believing this to be the case, compared to barely one third of the general public.
There is a clear need for the UK public to be ‘taken on the economic journey’. As most economists will tell you, popular positivity around the economy is a central driver of growth. There is also a potential argument to be made for a greater, more equitable distribution of the benefits of economic prosperity.
It is clear that the UK has been going through a long stretch of uncertainty and negativity. Economically, politically and socially, the UK’s resilience has been called into question, which has created heightened levels of doubt and worry both for the general public and for business.
Our Change Index research suggest that there is a significant shift in how business is feeling about the future. There is a sense, to coin a phrase, that the grey clouds are parting, and that, for the first time in what has felt like a very long time, there is much more to be positive about.
During this summer, UK shop prices fell for the first time in almost three years, inflation returned to more manageable levels, the Labour Party’s recent electoral win, campaigning on the very theme of “Change in Britain” is another area where many have suggested that the UK is turning a corner and entering into a new era with refreshed optimism.
Public opinion – on the new government
The majority of the UK population we surveyed expressed increased confidence due to the recent change in government. Many feel hopeful about the future and expect positive changes under the new administration.
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Many feel hopeful about the future and expect positive changes under the new administration. On average 30% of the UK public have confidence in the current UK government.
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Younger respondents (18-34) are notably more confident in the current UK government (44%)
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Compared to the older generation (65+), where only 21% express confidence. This generational divide suggests that younger people may be more hopeful or feel more connected to the current political climate.
Economic positivity
When we look at perceptions of business on the position and potential of the UK and global economies, there is also significant (and perhaps surprising) positivity.
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Of Key Decision-Makers (KDMs) believe the UK government will provide stability over the next two years
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Of senior executives are optimistic their business will grow in the next two years
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Of KDMs believe their business will be in a better financial position in two years
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Of senior executives are clear on the skills and talent needed for their employees to enable business success.
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The percentage of the UK public who feel that they have the resources, or the right people around them, to adapt to unexpected change
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The percentage of the UK public who feel that they have access to resources for learning new skills
Becoming Masters of Change
If change and unpredictability is the new normal, then it is essential that the UK population is supported and has the appropriate resources to manage change effectively. Unfortunately, our figures show that this is not currently the case.
In general, the UK public does not feel supported in the unexpected changes that are appearing more regularly and with greater impact. In addition, the public do not feel that they have the resources available to learn new skills in an ever-changing world.
If the UK is to become a master of change, then it is essential to ensure that the public feels confident in its ability to tackle and manage change effectively. Only then can change be embraced fully, by both business and the public.
Turning change into opportunity requires a culturally-embedded belief that change is not only a good thing, but that it can be managed, controlled and turned to both individual and collective advantage. However, as a nation, it will be essential to revisit the way we educate, the resources we invest in to help people help themselves and the support networks that we build to create what could be called a popular ‘change intelligence’ and appetite.
